Measures of Impact of New York State Drive Clean Rebate for Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicle (EV) rebates in New York have gone predominantly to households with annual incomes less than $200,000 to buy or lease moderately priced EVs to replace older, typically more polluting vehicles. In 2021, 40% of rebate recipients surveyed said they would not have purchased or leased an EV without the rebate.

In this paper for the 36th Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exposition (EVS36), CSE’s Brett Williams, senior principal advisor for electric vehicle programs, and research analyst Nicholas Pallonetti examine 14,000 survey responses from recipients of the New York Drive Clean Rebate to assess the outputs and impacts of the program since 2017, with an emphasis on 2021. Topics analyzed include rebate influence, incidence, beneficiaries and vehicle replacement.

Key takeaways

• Vehicle price. Despite valid concerns about the high cost of EVs, rebates in New York have predominantly gone to moderately priced EVs.
  • Similar to earlier years, for model year (MY) 2020, 71% of rebates went to EVs with an MSRP under $40,000 (before incentives) – despite the onset of COVID-19.
  • For MY 2021, the percentage under $40,000 fell to 60% as Tesla lost Model 3 share but grew Model Y share at a higher price ($50,000–$60,000).
• Household income. For 2021 purchases/leases, nearly 71% of rebate funding went to households with annual incomes less than $200,000 and a third had household incomes below $100,000.
• Consumer characteristics. By 2021, rebate recipients had come to resemble new-car buyers for certain metrics of race/ethnicity and age. Moderate differences remained for home ownership and educational attainment, and larger differences distinguished rebate recipients as having higher incomes and more frequently identifying as male.  
• Rebate influence.
  • In 2021, 87% of rebate recipients rated the rebate “moderately,” “very” or “extremely important” in making it possible to acquire an EV, up from 2020.
  • Some 40% claimed they would not have purchased/leased without the rebate.
• Vehicle replacement. Rather than being an additional vehicle for a household, most rebated EVs have replaced older, typically more polluting vehicles (80% in 2021). Over one-quarter of replaced vehicles were 15+ years old and over half were 5+ years old.